Constructive improvements

I'm back in Nigeria. Watching the local telly last night was a suitably surreal experience. Not by any stretch of the imagination could the election be called free and fair - the verdict of all independent monitoring groups. However, its hard to see how anything other than the predicted and pre-determined would happen. In many ways, the transition from one elected president to another was as trouble-free as one could possibly hope for. Nothing like the implosion/coup worst case scenarios was remotely possible.

The time is now ripe for thinking through how to strengthen democratic processes in Nigeria so that the same chaos and violence doesn't happen in four years' time. Here are my initial thoughts:

1. INEC needs to be strengthened and insulated from any possible political interference. As happened with the EFCC, there is an opportunity for donor support to help create a fully autonomous agency. INEC staff cannot be members of any political party - a due dilligence screening process needs to be undertaken on all candidates. Preparations for the next election should begin as soon as possible, beginning with a review of independent (local and international) monitoring reports.

2. Key issues for INEC to improve on:
a) the ballot boxes were made of flimsy transparent plastic with a flexible opening. It is possible to put ones hand completely inside the box to pull out other ballots. A new ballot box should be designed and used which makes it impossible to open unless with a key/passcode. Ownership of the key/passcode should itself be strictly monitored
b) The polling stations need to be adequately guarded. In countless cases, hired thugs stole ballot boxes in the most recent election.
c) The count. There was no tv footage of the counting process. This should be televised, with independent monitors allowed full access.
d) Ballots should printed well in advance of polling day. If for any reason this is not possible, voting should be postponed.
e) Ballot papers must have individual reference codes. In many cases, ballots simply had the serial number OOOOOO, facilitating mass rigging
f) Thumbprints. Many instances of election officials thumb printing ballots have been reported. Spot checks using a fingerprint scanner should be deployed, both at the polling station and in the counting halls, to avoid this malpractice.
g) Voter registration. It is not clear what percentage of the elligible populace had been able to register to vote. The voter registration process needs to start at least a year before the next elections to avoid this.

Part of the donor support should involve partnerships (in training and capacity building) with electoral commission bodies overseas.

There are many more detailed points to make about how to strengthen INEC. A key external factor is removing the immunity from prosecution clause for governors in the constitution. The fifth amendment more or less works in the US, where there are countless checks and balances which mean you will be caught and prosecuted later if not sooner (via impeachment). The law does not have enough teeth in Nigeria for the immunity arrangement to be feasible. The flipside of this political reform would be a move to a more genuine fiscal federalism, with States granted more autonomy to develop the local economy. A check and balance to stop increased autonomy promoting increased graft would then be a strengthened Federal and State-level audit function.