2007

I know nothing, I am an outsider, this country is highly complex. But sifting through all the conversations I've had, this is the pattern I see emerging:

1. The North is biding its time. Everything is under control
2. Obasanjo has resisted a Northern candidate, but appears now to have relented from what the weekend's papers said
3. The Northerner of choice at the Villa is Yar-adua (according to This Day Sunday)
4. There are quite a few good reasons for (3). The link between Obj and his older brother, the fact that he was one of the first to declare his assets in 1999, the fact that he is perceived as relatively innocuous and benign - similar to the choice for John Major over a decade ago - he offendeth no one.
5. Once a Yar-adua or similar benign/harmless/symbolically valuable northerner is backed by the PDP machinery (Obj is going to take over as Chairman of the party post May 2007), the race will be on for a technocrat pro-reform VP. This is where Ngozi may come back in, or perhaps even Oby (Igbo woman technocrat seems to be the formula).
6. Utomi and Duke should not be dismissed. If there were a functioning democratic process, Duke would probably do very well across the South (but less well in the North for obvious reasons). However, their function is not really to try and win, it is rather to alter the terms of the debate. Both candidates are easily smart enough to realise this. Their role is transitional - to change the paradigms in which politics takes place in Nigeria, away from quasi-tribalistic loyalty to one uber-party, towards pro-reform issues and policy oriented politicking, based on merit, achievement and rational argument.